드러커 할아버지가 그랬다.
혼돈의 시기에서 미래의 예측이 불확실할때는, 미래를 창조하라!! 라고.....
구글이 예언자들이 이야기하는 내세 존재한다는 모든 개개인의 인생에 일었났던 모든일을 저장하고 있다는 '아카식 레코드'를 재현할 조짐이다.
피카사의 인수에서부터, 지역검색의 강화, Wireless판의 발표에 이은.. Keyhole 의 인수....
애플의 스티브잡스역시 iPod iphoto 판을 내놓으면서 향후 iphoto 의 windows edition 을 내놓을 계획이 없다고 말했다. 이게 아주 훌륭한 뺑끼다. 적을 안심시키면서도 다른쪽으로의 사고를 지연시키는... 조만간 Apple 은 iTunes 와 비슷한 업계의 입장에서 보면 굉장히 disruptive한 사진관련 툴 혹은 서비스를 Launching 하게 될것이다.
구글 역시 만만치 않다. OS Vendor MS의 독점력을 조만간 과거 IBM 이 누릴뻔한 독점적 지위를 그리워하는 그런 꿀꿀한 과거의 추억으로 만들어 버릴만한 행보를 시작할 것이다. 어떻게 ... 다 이야기 해주면 내가 장사할꺼리가 사라지니깐... 관심을 가진 독자는 메일쓰라.
자 그럼 '검색'의 본질이란 무엇인가에 대해서 한번 생각해보고.
검색+gmail+피카사+헬로우+블로거닷컴+키홀+로컬검색+Wireless 가 인간의 '경험'이라는 주제를 놓고 어떻게 value chain을 형성하게 될지 머릿속으로 그려보라..
Google buys satellite image firm KeyholeBy Matt Hines CNET News.com October 27, 2004, 7:46 AM PT
Internet Internet advertising Search Google
Search giant Google said Wednesday that it has acquired Keyhole, a company specializing in Web-based software that allows people to view satellite images from around the globe.
Financial terms of the deal were not announced, but Google said it has cut pricing for Keyhole's flagship software package, Keyhole 2 LT, from $69.95 to $29.95.
The acquisition of Keyhole underscores Google's efforts to widen its search capabilities beyond basic Web page results, as competition in the search sector heats up.
One example of the company's growth strategy is a feature that lets surfers see excerpts from some books. The company began testing the service last year and incorporated it into its main search engine earlier this month.
Google also recently unveiled Google Desktop Search, a thin-client application that lets people retrieve e-mail, Microsoft Office documents, AOL chat logs and a history of Web pages previously viewed, all via a Web browser.
Google faces competition in the Web search arena from a variety of sources, including Amazon.com and a host of new, smaller companies.
Keyhole, founded in 2001, offers software that lets Internet users view geographic images collected from satellites and airplanes. The technology relies on a multiterabyte database of mapping information.
The software gives users the ability to zoom in from space level; in some cases, it can zoom in all the way to a street-level view. The company does not have high-resolution imagery for the entire globe, but its Web site offers a list of cities that are available for more detailed viewing. The company has focused most on covering large metropolitan areas in the United States and is working to expand its coverage.
Clayton Chiristensen의 책 'Innovator's Dilemma' 에서 구체적으로 기존에 keptive market 을 가지고 있던 회사들이 disruptive technology에 의해서 대체되었는지를 기술하였다면 새로운 책 'Innovator's solution' 에 대해서는 So what? 이라는 부분에 대한 구체적인 예시를 들고 있다. 아직 Innovator's solution 이라는 책은 보지 못했지만 disruptive strategy 라는 말을 개발해낸듯...
Howard Dresner recently spoke with Dr. Clayton Christensen, a Harvard Business School professor and the preeminent expert in the area of disruptive innovation and business strategy. Their discussion covered a broad range of topics from identifying and creating a disruptive strategy to protecting oneself from disruptive competitors.
The resulting interview was so content-rich, we found it necessary to divide it into two parts. In this first installment, Dr. Christensen and Howard begin by defining what is meant by "disruptive" and "sustaining" innovation.
Howard Dresner, Gartner Fellow 가 interviewer.
Howard Dresner:
Please explain the concepts of disruptive innovation and sustaining innovation.
Clayton M. Christensen:
Well, the reason I'm asking the question that led to this model of sustaining and disruptive innovation is to understand what kind of strategy could an entrant firm pursue, that would make it the easiest to kill a larger giant incumbent?
Sustaining innovation is an innovation that brings to market a product or service that a company in the market could sell for higher margins to its best customers. In other words, sustaining innovation brings a better product into the market. Some sustaining innovations are simple, incremental, year-to-year improvements. Others are dramatic, breakthrough technologies the transition, in telecommunications, from analog to digital, and digital to optical. They were a real technological tour de force, but their affect on the service was to bring a better product into the existing market that could be sold for higher margins to the best customers of the leaders.
The odds overwhelmingly favor the incumbent leaders of the industry in battles of sustaining innovation; whether they are simple, incremental innovations or breakthroughs.
A disruptive innovation brings to market a product not as good as the products in the current market, and so it cannot be sold to the mainstream customers. But it is simple and it is more affordable. It takes root in an undemanding portion of the market, then improves from that simple beginning to intercept with the needs of customers in the mainstream later.
항상 disruptive technology 는 mainstream 의 변방에서부터 출발한다. !! network 의 센터가 아닌 network 의 edge 로부터 점점 링크의 갯수를 늘려나가는 전략..
I call that a disruptive innovation not because it's a breakthrough from a technological sense, but instead of sustaining the trajectory of improvement that has been established in a market, it disrupts it and redefines it by bringing to the market something that is simpler.
SIMPLICITY 의 미학...
Dresner:
What are some good and relevant examples of each?
전작에서는 Computer Hard-drive 와 Excavator industry 를 그 예로 들었다.
Christensen:
Well, in the computer hardware industry, the mini-computer disrupted the mainframe. Then when the personal computer came along, it disrupted the mini-computer. And so Digital Equipment and all those guys got blown out of the water.
Today, wireless handheld devices like Blackberries and iPAQs and Palm Pilots are disruptive relative to notebook computers. So those are good examples.
Internet telephony; the packet-switching technology developed by Cisco and others; wasn't good enough to be used in the voice telecommunications market, so it took root in a less demanding application, data transmission. Little by little, it got better and better and now you can send a voice signal over the Internet. That's a good example of a disruptive innovation. Southwest Airlines is another, and Wal-Mart. Pretty much any company whose stock you wish you had owned over the last ten years startedat the simple end of the market and then moved up.
Dresner:
Wal-Mart's been a disruptive innovator for a very long time. I suspect there are some that follow a relatively short cycle and those that have a very much longer cycle. Is there any way to predict that?
Christensen:
I bet you there is, but I just haven't thought about it. You should do that [laughs]. But some, in fact, are very long. Merrill Lynch is a great example. We associate the name Merrill Lynch with high net-worth clients, but Merrill Lynch actually came into the brokerage market in about 1912, and Charles Merrill was bringing Wall Street to Main Street. He made it so simple and cheap for middle-income people to own stock, that he created a big new market. And from 1912 to today, they've cleaned out a lot of brokerage firms whose names you can't remember anymore. And they're still a healthy company. They haven't yet been decimated by the online people.
Dresner:
What are your views on General Electric and IBM? IBM has reinvented itself more than once and we could argue they disrupted themselves. And General Electric, which is a holding company, but interesting in the sense that they have very different businesses they manage quite differently. Some arguably are disruptive in nature, and others are more sustaining.
Christensen:
It's a good question. A company can survive a disruptive attack and remain as the leader, but evidence is overwhelming that the only way to do that is if the leader in the industry that's being disrupted sets up a separate organization.The separate entity then needs the freedom to create a business model that is tuned to that new disruptive business and gives it a charter to kill the parent.
So IBM, when the mini-computer disrupted the mainframe, were very late. But they then set up a separate business unit in Rochester, Minnesota, and when the personal computer; as it disrupted the mini; IBM set up a separate business unit in Florida.And they're the only one of the major computer companies of the 1960s and '70s that did that, and they are the only ones that survived.
What you say is really wise, because if you look at any company that you would say has transformed itself over the last 30 years or so, it is GE. In every case, they achieved the transformation by setting up or acquiring new disruptive business units and selling off or shutting down ones that had reached the end of their lives. In no case did they transform the business model of an existing business unit to cause it to catch the disruptive wave.
So it's like in biological evolution, you and I as individuals will just die, and the mutants will take over. A corporation can evolve, really quite effectively if you know how to do it. It's just the individual business units have a hard time.
Dresner:
In The Innovator's Solution you suggest, if I understand correctly, focusing on profit versus growth will prevent or impede innovation, thereby preventing future growth. And if we assume companies must innovate to grow, does that mean all public companies are incapable of innovation and will ultimately fail?
Christensen:
The evidence is just overwhelming that is true. We can't use the word innovation here, because if a market is known and a company has a good foothold in that market already, they should be very impatient for growth: invest aggressively and get ahead of the competition is the only way to succeed.
But this particular type of innovation we call disruption needs a longer runway for it to take off, and part of the reason is that many of the strategy details are just unknowable in advance. You've got to get into the market, try a few things, fail a few times and iterate towards a viable strategy. Then, once the strategy is known and tested, it's very important to invest aggressively to grow.
But the evidence really is strong that when a corporation needs that new business to get very big, very fast, they won't allow it to take that time on the runway; the time to make sure it's headed in the right direction. They just force it to take off very quickly and almost always, it fails.
Dresner:
Obviously, that's the problem public companies face every day: trying to balance pleasing Wall Street with long-term strategy and; survival, even. And one could make a case for staying private; or perhaps returning to private ownership; as a way to insure long-term viability.
Christensen:
I think you're right. Look at Kodak today. They were very prescient, saw digital photography coming, invested in it. They have a business now that's nearly $1.5 billion; it's profitable. But the digital business just won't get big enough, fast enough to satisfy Wall Street and they don't have a long enough time horizon. If Kodak could go private for a couple of years and then come back out, I bet you they'd do better.
Dresner:
So what advice would you give a company that's not currently public? Don't go public? Never go public? Obviously, it's extremely enticing to management to go public.
Christensen:
It's very enticing. There are lots of advantages to the sorts of capital you can raise in that environment, but I guess you just have to say, if you do it, just go in with both eyes open. You're walking on the razor's edge, and as long as you keep growing, you have the privilege of investing to grow. But if growth stops, then life gets very hard.
Dresner:
Would you say a company's install base of customers is another inhibitor of innovation?
초강력중요!!!
Christensen:
That's right. A customer will never lead you to develop a product which that customer cannot use.
Dresner:
So sustaining innovation of course can keep a company viable for many, many years, but listening only to the customer base, for the long term, could in fact be quite damaging.
Christensen:
That's right. In fact, if you're looking to start a new-growth business, very often, the most important customers to understand, are non-customers. Because if you figure out why it is they're not customers, and then bring an innovation that allows them now to become customers, that's what growth comes from.
Dresner:
For an existing company with an installed base, how would you suggest they simultaneously serve the installed base, while trying to invest in future growth businesses? How do you do that? What's the right structure?
Christensen:
If the organization or the business unit charged with serving the installed base is also asked to go after non-customers with the more affordable, simpler product, they can't do it. Because the business models are so different, and small customers with the lower priced product; it's not an attractive financial; it doesn't solve the financial goals of an established business unit. Almost always, this new game begins before the old game ends. If you somehow create a strong economic incentive for the management of the existing business unit to go after the new disruptive opportunity, you take your eye off the main profit and cash engine of the company, and you stumble very quickly. And yet, while that is still going, you've got to get your foothold in the new market. And that's why it's just really important to set up a separate unit.
Dresner:
In Innovator's Solution there were some examples of companies that went after new disruptive businesses, disruptive growth businesses, and were hammered by Wall Street. They brought in somebody to turn the company around, shed the new disruptive business, and were rewarded by Wall Street simply be returning to the status quo.
Christensen:
[Laughs]... That's right. Not a very complimentary book about Wall Street.
Dresner:
Perhaps you could spend a few moments talking about your model for segmentation. You talk about how most companies focus on product segmentation, or various demographics. And you talk about what I would call purpose-specific segmentation; based on what people are actually buying, or problems they're trying to solve with a particular product.
Christensen:
Well, you think about your own ; the sequence of thought you go through when you ultimately end up deciding to buy a product. Somehow, you become aware you need to get something done for yourself. And then the next thought is, "What can I buy or what can I hire, to get this job done for me?" And then you start the search. But what comes to your mind, after you're aware that you have a job that you need to get done for yourself, is that you then start to think, "Who can I hire to do this job?" And so in many ways, we hire products to do jobs for us. We hire services to do jobs for us. If an innovating company focuses on the job, then when you go through that sequence, and you become aware you've got to get that job done, there'll be a product sitting there designed to do that job. You don't think in terms of demographics. You don't say, "I'm in the 40 to 50 year old Caucasian male bracket, and therefore, there's a 35% probability that I'd prefer this product over that one." You don't think that way. But when people do consumer research on 40 to 50 year old Caucasian males, the results of it will be that X percent of the demographic segment, prefer this product over that one. And so they develop a product when they target the demographic segment; that may nor may not connect with what you're trying to do for yourself; because you actually are a very unpredictable person. Over the course of a day, or a week, or a month, there are a lot of things that you're trying to get done for yourself.
And so if I, as an innovator, try to understand you as a consumer, this is a volatile, unpredictable target. But if I, instead, try to understand the jobs sitting out there which periodically might arise in your life, and then I communicate to you, a brand associated with the job, then geographically, as you wander aimlessly through life, if you find yourself needing to get the job done, then you just look down on the floor and say, "Oh, that's who I should hire to do this job." Bingo.
So it's a different way of thinking about market segmentation, but I think that reason why; like P&G, their new product failure rate is over 85%. Of the products they launch into the market, 85% fail. And this is allegedly one of the most sophisticated market research organizations in the world. But if you look at how they segment markets, they divide markets by product category, and then they divide markets by demographics. And that's why they fail.
Dresner:
I would say that's probably the classical approach to segmentation. I know a lot of our clients struggle with segmentation, and spend a great deal of time. And of course, you know we focus a lot on analyzing data, going through it trying to figure out exactly why did their customers buy, and when did they buy. What drives that behavior, and when they do buy, what does that transaction look like? What are the sorts of associative properties between the different things they actually purchase; and they struggle with this ; and in some cases, they bring in consultants and use all sorts of technology to try and sort through it. Using your model, what approach would you take? Is there a best practice, if you will, for learning the true segmentation?
Christensen:
Yeah. There are two approaches that really work, and I recommend you do them in sequence. The first one is the management of the company trying to understand the structure of its markets; just get 'em all in a room, and give them 20 Post-it notes. Get them to think, "What are the activities, or the reasons why customers buy products?" And then go through; there's a technique called KJ diagramming, where you get everybody to rank order their Post-it notes as the most important activity for which customers buy the product. You ask one person to put their most important note on a flip-chart and read it, and explain why he thinks it's the most important reason why people buy this product.
Then just get all the others in the room to interview, write a similar thing on your Post-it note, and you stick it on the chart ; and then you get someone who had a different purpose or activity, and stick that on the chart. So you kind of aggregate these collections of Post-it notes. And then you look at the collection of Post-it notes, and try to abstract at a level, that, when people engage in these activities, what's their motivation? What's the broader purpose they're really trying to accomplish?
Dresner:
That's got to be the difficult leap to take.
Christensen:
Yes, but you can do it. The next thing to do is whip those as hypotheses. Out of that kind of an exercise most companies will come up with four or five jobs or purposes out there for which people might hire a product like ours. Then go interview customers who bought one of your products, or used one of your products yesterday, and ask them what was the situation you were in yesterday that caused you to pick up this product and use it. And write a case study about it. And don't necessarily ask the customer to articulate their reasons, but just to describe the situation they were in. If you write eight or ten case studies from customers who recently used a product, and the cases about the situation they were in, you start to see things line up pretty well; between your internal brainstorming and this survey of customers ; of what are the reasons why, what motivates them to pick up a product?
And then the third is, as you understand the situation, then you ask them, "Now think back when you were in a similar situation, but you weren't in a position to hire that product to do the job for you. What did you do? What alternative did you hire?"
As you ask those questions, you get a sense for, who do you really compete against in that job? And that really allows you to put some substance around a job.
Dresner:
In your estimation, who's done a good job of that? What companies that we would know?
Christensen:
I know of none. Seriously. I was talking to Scott Cook about this, who is the founder and Chairman of Intuit. And Intuit has done it occasionally, with their QuickBooks product and Turbo Tax. Scott said, "Looking back on it, whenever we failed with a new product, we followed a conventional marketing paradigm, of segmenting by a product attribute, or customer demographic." And assuming I've got it right, I asked Scott, "Why does everybody get it wrong?" And one of the puzzles is that, at the Harvard Business School, the god of marketing 30 years ago, was a guy named Ted Leavitt, who wrote this article called Marketing Myopia and so on. He taught this in his classes. He said, "People don't buy a quarter-inch drill. They buy a quarter-inch hole. You've got to study the hole, not the drill. The drill is just a solution for it." It's the very same concept, but why is it that the concept, although everybody knows it's right, never gets traction? Scott said maybe one reason why is that many of today's leading edge marketing techniques were perfected by companies like P&G, where Scott used to work. In many of their markets, there's almost a 1:1 correspondence between the demographic group and the job to be done. Feminine hygiene products, for example, if you understand the customer, you understand the job, in many ways.
But then when you move outside of that realm, where there's not a 1:1 correspondence between job and demographic segment, then you end up misapplying the technique.
Dresner:
Interesting. What about looking at it from the other perspective. If I want to create a product or a service, what technique would I use to identify jobs that need to be done, that perhaps are not being done today?
Christensen:
You have to start somewhere, but for example, Federal Express was a business that was positioned on a job to be done. Get the stuff from here to there overnight, with perfect certainty. And before Federal Express, there just wasn't anybody that had a business model really positioned on getting that job done. But if you have an interest, and maybe this thing exists, then go to the postal service, and interview people who use the postal service. Ask them about the circumstances in which they found themselves in when they found that service. And as soon as you begin to interact with people who are thinking, "Boy, I wish I could have gotten there," you know. That's the best example I can offer.
Howard Dresner:
You suggested in The Innovative Solution that ; I assume ; for an established organization, when constructing a business plan, they frame the opportunity initially as a threat, and then once they get the resources, to shift the focus to growth. Now I understand the sentiment. It seemed a little bit like bait-and-switch.
Clayton M. Christensen:
[Laughs]... That's true.
Dresner:
Can you give some examples of where this should be employed, and where it's worked and hasn't worked ; and what does management think of that?
Christensen:
Yeah, if they know you're gaming the system, will they somehow resist. I just think it's almost a law of nature. Konamen and Taversky showed individuals react that way. Same phenomenon posed as a threat, elicits a far more intense response. The reason it's relevant here is what we were talking about before: the new game begins before the old game ends. The old game is generally still very profitable and successful during the time when the new one has to start, so the business almost has no appetite for opportunity when it's being fed. But if you frame it as a threat, which ultimately it will be, there's nothing dishonest about that at all. It's really the only way you can get a successful organization to be motivated. Then you just need to get it into an environment where the people in charge don't feel the threat. All they see is the opportunity.
Dresner:
So different audiences, perhaps.
Christensen:
Yeah. The fellow who did that research we cited there, Clark Gilbert, just did a masterful study of the online newspaper industry. He was one of my doctoral students. Those ones that set up a separate organization; after they got the funding and everything, as soon as they separated it, they could think, "Now who wants to learn about Boston? Who's not in Boston? Who would like to advertise it, not advertising in The Globe, and who would like to use this, that doesn't subscribe to The Globe?" All of a sudden, there are all these opportunities they can see, where when they were in the Boston Globe newsroom, they just couldn't see those things.
Dresner:
That's a good example. You talk a bit about data analysis, or what we would call business intelligence, and to some degree, how it might actually work against the disruptive innovative process because it causes what I would consider somewhat of a myopic addition. Where would data analysis be used in the innovation process? Certainly it has some role.
Christensen:
Absolutely. I overstate the case sometimes. In a typical company, 80 to 90% of its money ought to be spent executing sustaining innovations. I only write about disruption, just because I don't have much to say about sustaining innovation. The established leaders, they have a very good track record in doing that. There, an analytical data approach to decision making is absolutely critical, because the data is valid. Data does have a problem, in that it's only available about the past. But when you're on a sustaining trajectory, the extrapolation of the past into the future is really, not a bad way to look. It's just when a disruption happens, and there is a reliable data that exists, and then you try to base your decision upon data, then you get in trouble.
Dresner:
But presumably, when somebody comes up with a bright idea, you'll want to start measuring something. Now we have a disruptive business opportunity, and we can start collecting relevant data, now that we understand and we've framed the opportunity. Arguably, we want to come up with some metrics. What would those metrics be?
Christensen:
Well, I'm not sure I would call them metrics as much as pattern recognition. Any piece of data only has meaning when you filter it through some theory in your mind, so we're always interpreting the meaning of data. One of the things I tried to achieve in this book is to say, if you've got a model or a theory, and then you see a piece of data, then you can interpret it: is this signal or noise? If signal, what does it portend about the future?
If you're concerned that you're headed in the right future, and you're armed with good theory, then you know what data to look for. It's like signposts along the road to the future. You can tell; I can ignore that signpost, and that signpost, but when you see that one, the models will tell you, "Oh. That's the signal the future's turning left and not right."
Dresner:
Okay. That's also helpful. One of the things I pulled out of your books is that, in some ways, the IT organization can be an obstacle ; certainly for a disruptive innovation. First of all, is that always true? Second of all, is there anything IT can do to not be in that position?
Christensen:
Yeah. Where the problem comes is, you generate data from the IT organization to measure performance in the past. Usually, that's a critical role. The data comes structured in a particular way, and almost always, it comes structured by product line and by business unit. All of this is good, but then the error comes, not necessarily from the IT organization, but from the executives who hire it. They come to think the market is structured along the lines in which the data are given to him. And so you start to measure market share by product category, because I have data by product category. It's that translation of measuring the performance of what we have, to now thinking the market is structured in the way we collect the data, and then using that to kind of drive your consumer understanding, at which you target the next markets. It's in those two translations the data becomes counter-productive in an organization. You're using it for things the IT organization did not generate it for.
Dresner:
So certainly, if you have a company that established IT sort of being a proxy for the business, in many cases, it really could not do anything easily beyond the boundaries of what business management has to find as their scope. What about IT in the context of a disruptive company? Where can they help? What can they do to facilitate the disruptive innovator? How is their charter different? Does technology even play a role in aiding a....
Christensen:
Boy, that's a great question. In Chapter 8 of the book, we talk about how ; and what you really point out is, I've thought about parts of the problem, and not all of the problem. It's a great question. In Chapter 8, we describe how strategy comes from two directions. It emerges from the bottom of the organization, as your people are just out there trying to close sales and satisfy customers. Strategy also comes from the senior ranks as they analytically figure out, "How do we get to where we need to be?" And the two things collide in the allocation process, and then whatever merges from that is the actual strategy. You remember that model?
And we point out, that almost always, a company starts out in a direction conceived by the founder, and in 93% of companies that ultimately end up being successful, they figure out the original strategy doesn't work. But by kind of thorough experimentation and trial-and-error in the market, they happen upon or iterate towards a strategy and a business model that really is viable. At that point, companies that continue to kind of flounder and experiment in the market place, kind of fade away. And the ones that know, really get ahead of the pack, because in a disruption, you're rarely the only one who's trying this. There are five to fifty of you, trying to swim upstream here, and the one that gets out ahead fastest, is the one that really emerges as the winner.
At that point, we have to flip the business around and drive the implementation of a deliberate; of the strategy that you now know works; drive it from the top. There, the ability to measure how successful you're being, given you know what to do, is very critical.
Dresner:
If I were to ask you what the moral to The Innovator's Solution is, what would you say it is? If I were to take something away, I'd say, "Maybe we should just accept what we are in the jungle of business." Some organizations are innovators, and some just simply aren't. And maybe some just want to be comfortable. Or the moral, "We should all find a way to innovate, because that's the key to our future success." What would you say the moral is?
Christensen:
It would be much closer to your last one, and it would be that innovation is actually not nearly as risky and random as historically has seemed to be the case. There isn't anything about the process of innovation per se, that makes it unpredictable. The problem in the past is, we just haven't quite known what are all the variables that affect whether we can succeed, nor have we known how to manage those variables well. What I hope we do here, is highlight for innovators, a bunch of these variables that really lie at the root of many innovative failures. If they can understand why this stuff happens, and control it well, they actually can be successful at innovation, much more frequently than historically has seemed to be the case. It's not yet a cookbook, but I'm hoping that we can bring it forward and already, there are some pretty significant victories established companies have logged. Even without The Innovator's Solution; just having read The Innovator's Dilemma, they're going to see this. And once you see it, it's like gravity. When you see an airplane fly, it doesn't disprove the law of gravity. They're just a bunch of engineers who got their heads together and said, "We understand what pulls planes down; let's figure out a way to help them fly despite that." There really are quite a few companies flying quite well these days.
Dresner:
So what are some good examples we haven't spoken about already?
Christensen:
Well, Intel. Probably $18 to $16 billion of their revenue today, comes from projects they launched in response to seeing disruption in their world. Kodak, with their digital photography initiatives, heavily shaped by their consciousness of this. EMC, this data storage company? They have this massive and expensive symmetrics system the founders were just absolutely wed to. There are a bunch of folks in the company that read The Innovators Dilemma and said, "Holy cow, you guys. This is going to hit us." They went off and bought Data General, which had a mid-range storage solution. Now, 70% of their revenues come from that product line. The company would have vaporized had they not done that.
The US Department of Defense. The unmanned aircraft is now a very important part of their military arsenal. That got commercialized, really fed by this thinking. The Washington Post now is an online learning company. It generates more revenues and profit from online learning, which they launched in response to this, than they generate from The Washington Post newspaper.
Dresner:
You also mentioned Boeing in your book, and how the Canada Air regional jets were in fact a disruptive influence. Boeing is the bellwether of that industry, at least for the U.S. For quite a while, they kept building bigger and bigger aircraft, while smaller manufacturers like Bombardier, were building smaller aircraft and competing very effectively in certain markets. So it sounds like a classic disruptive innovation.
Christensen:
It is a classic disruption, and it's very hard. Actually the man who pointed that out to me, was Phil Condit, the Chairman of Boeing. He said, "This is happening to Boeing." He hadn't quite thought of it in these terms, but this helped him visualize, and it; even the fact the chairman could see it happening, didn't solve the problem. That's why it's a vexing problem for most of us to deal with.
Dresner:
It seems to me that a lot of companies that recognize it perhaps, might, if they have the assets, go out and buy a disruptive company ; and in most cases, they absorb it, and they destroy the disruptive innovation that's occurring.
먼가 느껴지는게 있지 않은가? 새로운 벤쳐의 행태는.... 완전한 disruption model일 필요가 없다..굳이 편하게 사업하자면... major company 의 사업을 disrupt 할 수 있는 회사를 창업하고 이를 sale 하라.. 훌륭한 exit plan...BM 특허따위에 기댈생각은 아예 하지 말아라...끊임없는 사업화와 매각.... 이것이 급변하는 현실에서 거대자본들 틈바구니 속에서 생존하는 길일지도... 이젠 그 거대자본 속에 있는것도 안전하지 못하다.
Christensen:
That's perfect; that's right.
Dresner:
Is that the norm?
Christensen:
It is, unless they get it. For example now, Cisco, having studied this problem a lot, they just went out and bought Linksys, right? Linksys is the next generation disrupter to Cisco. This is just piddly little wireless routers that will only work in your home, and a little office. But you know exactly what trajectory they're on. So Cisco bought them, but they're keeping them very separate. Historically, Cisco's acquisitions were just systematically integrated into the corporation. But, if they do this right, they'll catch the next wave, even while they maximize the profitability from the current wave.
Dresner:
Presumably, this applies to the public sector as well.
Christensen:
It does, in a lot of ways. We've done a lot of thinking about healthcare for example, and basically, the reason the healthcare industry is so expensive and inconvenient is it hasn't been disrupted. The hospitals have moved to the very high end of their markets; very capable of dealing with extremely sophisticated problems and physicians, similarly, become very capable. The policy-makers' solution is just to somehow get these things to become cheap. It'll never happen. What has to happen is we need to bring technology to less expensive venues of care, to enable them to become more capable. And the same thing to bring technology to nurses, so they can do things they used to need a doctor to do.
That's the solution. We studied education a lot, and the problems transforming K-12 education. In many ways, you can understand why historic reform efforts have failed. If you think about the resources processes values model in Chapter 7, you can see why charter schools are such a critical component of the future solution.
Dresner:
Great. Thank you, this has been good.
Christensen:
Great questions, Howard.
Dresner:
Thanks. Excellent stuff.
____
혁신가. ( 성공하지 못하면 아무도 이렇게 불러주지 않는다. )
무엇이 무엇의 disrupted technology 이고 trend 인지를 아는 insight를 함양하는 것이 가장 우선되어야 함. 그 후에는 그들 사이의 시간과 공간적 위치.. 그리고 그들의 크기... 그리고 intersection ( 속칭 convergence ) 에 있어야만 하는 interface ...
결국 모든 행위의 근원이 되는 사람들과 관련된 demographics statistics 를 예의주시! 기술과 문화적 변이 사이의 연관관계.
지금 현재 꼭 필요한것 ? 삼성전자, SK Telecom, 현대자동차 .... 그들 major player 가 필요한 disrupted technology 는? 기준은 "무엇"을 좌표계의 기준을 채택하느냐에 따라서 완전히 달라지지만... 그것 역시 insight...
그리고 무엇보다도 중요한건...."Execution..."
실패를 두려워하지 말자. 실패속의 그 배움의 기회가 새로운 세상으로 나를 인도할것이라 믿는다.
참석자들의 주된 의견은 모바일기기가 ‘동시성’과 ‘상호작용’으로 인하여 맥루한이 이야기하던 ‘인간의 확장’ 개념의 실체를 보이고 있다라는 의견이었습니다. 그러나 여전히 음성통화와 문자메세지의 비중이 절대적으로 우위를 보이고 있으며, 제한적 인터페이스와 속도로 인하여 그 발전가능성의 방향을 점치는데는 신중함을 보였습니다. 또한 이러한 모바일기기의 범위를 현재의 핸드셋에만 한정하지 않고, 스마트폰, 무선이동인터넷까지 확장해석하였습니다. 연세대학교 김주환 교수(Social Network분야로 한국내에서는 열심히 하는 교수입니다.)의 연구내용중에 Voice와 SMS의 상호작용성에 대한 연구가 흥미로웠습니다. 남자,여자가 음성과 문자에 대해서 느끼는 비중이 남성은 음성과 문자는 전혀 다른 존재이지만 여성의 경우에는 음성과 문자에서 비슷한 수준의 감성가치를 두고 있다는 내용이 주입니다.
모바일컨텐츠의 발전방향 예측
현실의 다매체 환경에서 무선인터넷에서 제공하던 컨텐츠들은 대중매체의 그것을 재가공한 형태에 지나지 않음. 따라서 유저는 기존매체에서 콘텐츠를 소비할 수밖에 없으므로 모바일 콘텐츠는 모바일기기에 적합한 콘텐츠군으로 재구성되어야 함.
이러한 모바일기기에 적합한 컨텐츠 군의 특성으로는
- 기존의 대중매체 콘텐츠의 재생산이 아닐 것
- 5분 이내의 단기분량의 콘텐츠일 것
- 서비스 프로바이더가 제공하는 획일적인 컨텐츠에서 개인이 생산의 주체가 되는 방향으로 진화할 것 ( 프로->아마추어 )
- 진정한 상호작용 모델을 개발할 것 ( person-to-person , person-to-machine or service 로 구분지어 생각할 것 )
- LBS 등과 연결하여 인간의 ‘경험’과 상호작용하는 등의 매체’만’의 특성을 개발할 것
정도로 진단하고 있습니다.
l 제작발표회 후기
오후에 이어진 제작발표회에서는 각 대학에서 연구,구현한 내용들의 최종발표회였습니다. Contents Biz팀에서 이중에 다섯개 정도를 사업화 한다는 계획을 세웠습니다. 제가 인상깊게 보았고 사업화가 가능해 보이는 내용에 대해서만 커멘트하겠습니다. 나머지는 자료집을 참고하시기 바랍니다.
i. 숙명여대 ; 모바일 도전 60초 내가 바로 시민스타
인간사회 커뮤니티가 형성되는 곳을 권역별로 나누고, 이에 대한 지역정보나 인물정보등의 컨텐츠를 개인이 올리게 하므로서 친밀도를 높이고, 아마츄어 개인들의 컨텐츠의 재생산을 유도하는 것. 지역정보를 개인들의 품평회 같은 장으로 만들겠다는 것
ii. 연세대 ; 지하철 이야기 ( 옴니버스 드라마 )
시민들의 대부분의 생활이 지하철에서 일어난 다는 것을 전제로 하여 저예산 옴니버스 드라마를 제작하고, IMBC의 하나더 TV와 같은 PPL기법을 도입함으로서 offline commerce 를 유도하겠다는 내용. 2% CF와 같은 드라마 형태로 이해하면 되겠음.
iii. 한국디지털대 ; mobile Good Food
기존의 공중파 방송의 맛집 컨텐츠를 최대한 재활용만 해도 양질의 컨텐츠 생산이 가능하다는 것. 맛집을 택한 이유는 ‘생활’이기 때문에. 맛집이라는 컨텐츠가 킬러앱이 될 수 있다는 주장의 내용.
iv. 건국대 ; Dica-Phonca report
각 언론사에도 디카신문고등의 섹션이 있을정도로 개인이 생산해 내는 ‘사진’, ‘동영상’ 컨텐츠는 양질이면서도 모바일기기에 맞는 컨텐츠의 영역으로 사료됨. 개인방송국의 장을 마련하고 평판시스템을 도입함으로서 사용자들의 참여를 높여서 수익률을 올리자는 모델. 싸이월드의 첫페이지생각하시면 되겠음. PJ가 각 개인방송국들을 돌면서 좋은것들 선별하여 방송
v. 서울대 ; 콘텐츠와 네비게이션이 합체된 , 개인화 모바일 실험 방송국
개인의 experience trajectory 를 만들어주고 기록하는 장치로 핸드셋을 사용하자는 내용. 획일화된 컨텐츠의 소비보다는 핸드셋이 인간의 경험을 더욱 즐겁게 하고 이를 기록하여 추억으로 남기게 하자는 내용. 학내조사를 통해서도 이러한 모델에 대한 열기는 기존의 컨텐츠 소비보다 훨씬 뜨거운 상태라고 함.
가장 인상깊었던 내용은 서울대와 연대입니다. 점점 개인화된 사회로 진화하고 있고 ‘개인의 생산물’에 대한 학문적 논의는 되고 있지 않지만 조만간 학계의 새로운 이슈로 떠오를 것이라는 예상을 할 수 있었습니다. 자료집의 내용보다 실제로 각 팀들이 제작한 최종발표 동영상들이 정말 감동적이었습니다.
정확한 Location을 Pin-pointing하는 것. 모든 것을 가능하게 해줄 대변이점이 확실하다. 그러나 이러한 종류의 Context-Awareness는 ‘기술의 혁신’이 아닌 ‘문화적 변화에 알맞은 기술을 찾아내기’라는 토픽으로 바뀔 전망이다.
RFID, USN 등등 말이 많지만 실제적으로 이러한 생활을 가능하게 해줄 것으로 연일 대서특필되던 Bluetooth 역시 이러한 저러한 상황들에 걸려서 상용화되는데 애로점을 겪고 있지 않은가? 영화 같은 세상은 그렇게 쉽게 오지는 않을 전망이다.
아마도 Identity(Human)를 atom node로 한 Human network을 그려보는 작업을 진행해보면 이러한 황당한 가설에 고개를 끄덕이게 될지도 모르겠다. 바깥쪽 방향성을 지닌 링크를 확장 시키는 것은 극히 쉬운 일이리라. 그러나 어떠한 제삼의 object(person or service)가 안쪽방향을 가지고 어떤 사람에게로 Linking을 시도한다면 전자의 방향과는 전혀 다르게 강한 반발이 부딪힐 것이다. 지극히 개인화된 서비스를 통하여 이러한 반감을 낮추겠다고? 현실적인 예를 들어달라.
Identity에 이은 Activity context 역시 Network (누군가에게 통제받을지도 모르는)에 강제로(?) 물리려는 그러한 시도에 대해서는 굉장히 거부적일 확률이 높기 때문이다. ‘개인화’에 있어서 이러한 Context들의 흐름을 통제할 수 있는 ‘개인의 의지’를 매우 강력한 변수로 집어넣지 않으면 안 된다. 아주아주 쉽게 말해서 ‘보안문제’ 하면 이해가 되겠다. 근거가 부족하다는 것에 물론 동의한다. 그러나 그 역의 케이스를 계산해서 1 에서 빼보면 이 판단의 확률을 예측해볼 수 있지 않을까.
90 년대 후반의 닷컴버블은 수많은 실패와 성공 속에 한가지 명제를 남겼다.
사람들은 절대 기술의 혁신에 Drive되지 않는 존재라는 것이 바로 그것이다. 기술의 혁신이 새로운 문화를 창조하는 것을 모든 기획자들은 부정하면서도 당연하게 사용한다. 오히려 이러한 기술이 가능한 ‘문화적 행위’들을 리스트-업 하는 것이 고객의 욕구에 부응하는 것이라고 생각하기도 한다. 시장에 대한 개별기업이나 개인의 판단은 무의미하다. 시장은 지극히 효율적이기에 모든 정보를 이미 반영하고 있다는 것을 현실로 규정하고 미래를 만들어가야 한다. 예측하는 것을 지극히 옳지않다. 그러한 의미에서 고객들이 이미 인지하고 있는 ‘네이트’라는 시장역시 이미 고객들로부터 지극히 효율적인 피드백을 받고 있는 것은 아닐까? 어떤 마케팅 시도를 해도 매출이 늘지 않는다는 것. 그러나 그 와중에서 Mobile cyworld의 급격한 신장은 상당히 깊게 주목해볼 필요가 있지 않을 까 싶다. 수많은 네이트 컨텐츠와 서비스와 확연하게 다른 점이 무엇일까 ? 완전히 mobile cyworld를 다른 서비스들과 구분 시켜주는 속성은 무엇일까 ? 바로 ‘생산의 주체’이다. 어떠한 생산물에 대해서 개인이 소비하는 것이 아닌 ‘개인들의 생산품’ 그 자체가 어떠한 컨텐츠와도 비교할 수 없는 ‘킬러콘텐츠’가 되고 있는 것이다. 당연한 것으로 받아들이기에는 너무나도 큰 문화적 변이가 이 속에 숨어있다. 몇 년전부터 시작된건지 아무도 알수 없다. 사회에 영향을 미치는 미디어가 ‘매스미디어’에서 ‘퍼스널미디어’로 전이하고 있다는 것. 모두가 다 아는 사실이면서 진정 모르고 있는 사실이다. 이것이 단순한 트렌드로 보기에는 너무나도 큰, 사회구조 전반에 거대한 변화를 일으키고 있다는 말 되겠다.
수많은 ‘네이트’ 컨텐츠를 어떻게 하면 상황에 맞게 ‘개인화’ 할까라는 것에는 크게 두가지의 전제를 깔고 있다. 우리가 모든 상황(Situation)을 알고 있어야 한다는 것과 개인들이 네이트가 제공하고 있는 컨텐츠들에서 다 모르고 있고 이러한 것들을 알려주기만 하면 당연히 쓰게 될것이라는 전제.
첫번째 전제는 불가능하다. GPS,셀기반 측량기술, USN(궁극인데 정말 아예 안될지도 모른다.) 그 어느것도 사용자의 상황을 만들어 내는 진짜 ‘Context’를 예측하기 힘들다.
두번째, 이러한 방법으로 ARPU를 높일 수 있다는 생각. 고객들은 정말 이러한 편리한 서비스를 모르고 있는 것일까? Depth 를 낮춰주고 복잡한 메뉴 네트웍에 단순링크를 만들어준다고 박수치며 좋아할까? 고객들은 네이트가 이러한 서비스를 제공한다는 것을 다 알고 있다. 알면서도 안 쓴다면 어떻게 하지? 너무 가혹하지만 왜? 라는 답변에 현실적인 판단 근거들이 너무나도 많이 튀어나온다. ‘Handset이 고객과 가장 밀접하게 붙어있고 고객의 정보활동을 점유하고 있는 시간이 가장 많다.’라는 망사업자의 논리는 지극히 위험할지도 모른다. 모든 연령을 통틀어서 진정 Handset이 ‘정보활동’이라는 측면에서 사람과 상호교환(Interaction)하는 시간이 얼마나 될까? PC를 이용한 그것과의 시간비교는? 결과는 여러분의 예를 살펴보라.
‘HANDSET이 인간의 정보활동에 가장 가까이 있는 존재다.’ 라는 전제를 ‘단순히 인간사회에 나를 연결시키는 도구’로 생각하는게 옳은게 아닐까?
시장이 이미 포화되었다라는 시점부터 보여주고 있는 ‘음성 대 데이터통화 매출비율’로 이미 결론은 나와 버린게 아닐까 하는 생각을 하게 된다.
그렇다면 새로운 해법의 출구는 어떤 방식이어야 하는가? 그냥 충실하게 고객의 욕구를 쫒아가는 방법이다. 고객의 욕구를 계몽하려 하지 말고 그들이 가려는 방향으로 그대로 따라가자.
어떻게 따라가야 하는가? 그들이 어떤 경험을 하고 있는지 살짝 숨어보는 방법, 혹은 고객이 고객 자신의 경험을 느낄 수 있도록 하는 방법이다. 어떻게 하면 Context-awareness가 고객자체의 인생에 있어서의 value를 높여주고 이러한 과정중에 쌓인 Trust(혹은Brand)를 기반하여 Human node 안쪽으로의 링킹을 허가하도록 할것인가. 어떻게 그들이 생각하고 경험하고 즐거워하며 슬퍼하고 무엇을 소비하고 어떠한 만족도를 나타냈는지 알 수 있는 방법을 연구해야 하지 않을까?
이수만이 HOT를 조직하기 전에 전국 여고생 5000명을 대상으로 가장 좋아할만한 남자연예인상 네 명을 설문조사 했다고 한다. 요구사항이 늘어서 결국은 다섯명이 되었지만… 결과로 탄생한게 노래도 열라 못하는 HOT다. 얼마나 많은 돈을 거둬들였는지 잘 모른다.
지극히 개인화된 기기에서 위치기반의 서비스 중에서 어떠한 것들이 가능할까? 실용적인 애플리케이션들이 그 좋은 예가 될수 있겠다. 사실 '이런 일들이 가능할 것 같아' 라는 이야기들이 적어도 '나 내년에 화성에 놀러가.'라는 수퍼개구라성만 아니라면 고개를 끄떡거리게 되지 않는가..
이동성이 강조된 개인화 디바이스(머 지금 핸펀이 이정도라고 해보자)는 바늘이다. 먼가 실질적인 일을 하는..그러나 꼭 필요한 것이 있다. 실..
이바닥 용어로 Node 와 Link 정도 되겠지... 바늘로 굳이 지칭을 하자만 Node 의 수많은 method중의 중요한 한가지 정도로 인식될수 있겠다..
즉, 이 녀석 혼자만으로는 아무것도 안된다라는것.. 베이스 스테이션이 필요하다.
베이스 스테이션은 뭘까 ? PC ? 도리도리.... "네트웍" 이라 말하는게 옳을 것 같다.
바늘은 유저가 접하는 리얼월드의 정보의 맛있는 단편들을 계속 꼬챙이질한다. 그리고 실을 통해서 길게 늘어뜨리는 .... 이 실의 길이는 무한이라서 한없이 이어진다. 길이를 느낄수 없게 잘 관리해주는 실패도 어딘가에는 있겠지 :)
이러한 바늘과 실의 정보의 꼬챙이질과 연결질...에 가장 잘 어울리는 모델은 뭘까 ?
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바늘(카메라,코드리더,RFID리더,숫자인풋;개인정보,현위치) + 실(PC,네트웍,싸이월드,BLOG)
시간,장소,주변인(노드와 직접연결된 다른 노드들 되겠다.)들의 정보를 속성으로 가지는 사진들을 생산해본다면, 바꾸어 말하여 개인이 살아가는 인생을 바로 옆에서 기록해주는 비쥬얼 다이어리가 되준다면 ???
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노키아의 LifeBlog의 경우에는 사진과 글,SMS,MMS 등과 같은 핸펀안에서의 개인이 생산(!)하거나 다른 노드로부터 링킹되어 전달받은 컨텐츠들에 대해서 'by timeline'으로 저장할 수 있는 기능을 제공한다. LifeStream recording 이라고 할수 있다. 매일 하루하루 생각의 단편들을 남겨보든 BLOG의 기본컨셉에 "사진"이 가지는 오묘한 의미를 합성해놓은 퓨젼성으로 볼 수 있겠다. 노키아만 뜬금없이 이런짓을 하냐고? 웬만한 사람들은 다 이런쪽의 가능성을 보고 있다.
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그렇다면 사진에 위치 정보를 투명하게 넣어주는 방법도 불투명하게 넣어주는 방법... 여하간에 어떤 방법들이 가능할까 ?
1. GPS 를 이용해서 사진에 GPS 정보를 넣어주기 ( 물론 GPS 에서 얻어진 longitude,latitude 정보를 특정한 정보에 PINPOINTING 하는것은 또다른 어마어마한 핵심기술이다. )
2. 휴대폰의 셀추적기능을 이용한 cellular based LBS 를 이용하여 PINPOINTING 하는 방법.
3. 사용자가 직접 "재밌는" 방법을 이용하여 pinpointing 하는 방법 ..
1,2 는 현실적으로 가능하나.... 구체적으로 콕 찍어 !! 어디... 라고 할 수 있는 방법들이 없다. 물론 1,2 를 collaborative aggregation 작업을 반복함으로 인하여 위치정보를 refine 하고 이를 3 의 방법으로 연결하여 사용할 수 있는 방법은 가능...
그럼 자동으로 3 의 방법을 수행하는 방법은 ?
1. (반자동) 2차원코드나 **2342 등과 같은 location index 를 사용자의 time-line 상에 anchoring 해주기.
2. RFID 등을 이용해서 지나가는 위치 정보 송신기로부터 받은 정보를 대기화면 백가르운드 애플리케이션이 기록하기... ( 역의 경우는 privacy 문제 때문에 불가능 )
"기술적으로" 위의 GPS,핸펀LBS 를 이용해서 유저를 핀포인팅하는것은 등산하는 사람들 말고 .... 일반적인 고도로 도시화된 문명속에서 살아가는 "고객층(애매함..ㅎㅎ)"에게 의미있는 정보가 될 가능성이 희박하다..산위에서 여기는 대청봉하면 말되지만.... 코엑스몰 .. 어디!! 에서 어설프게 삼성역부근...이래봐야 있어봐야 짜증나는 정보라는...
고도로 도시화되고 이도시로 인구가 집중되고 대부분의 사람들이 문화적인 "경험"을 남기는 곳이 이속이라고 가정해보면, 아주 똘똘한 3번 항목의 방법들이 개발되어야 한다.
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시간이야..기본좌표니까 논외..
장소야.... 기술적으로 좀 간다 치더라도..
연관되었던 "사람"들은 어떻게 나의 life stream 에 ENCODING(???)해 넣겠는가.!!